Debunking the Generic Conspiracist Beliefs (GCB) Scale
Why the GCB scale isn't fit for purpose
The Generic Conspiracist Beliefs (GCB) scale was introduced in a 2013 paper to quantify someone’s belief in conspiracy theories. The idea was that this cohort could then be tested against other metrics (e.g. Critical Thinking Ability). It’s treated as the gold standard for measuring these beliefs. The problem is: what if this foundation is shaky?
This article won’t make any arguments about which conspiracy theories are or are not true. Such discussion would unnecessarily complicate the issue at hand. The paper uses Aaronovitch’s definition of “conspiracist beliefs,” which I’ll adopt here: “the unnecessary assumption of conspiracy when other explanations are more probable.” If you prefer, feel free to substitute “non-officially approved beliefs.”
The measure is calculated by asking 59 generic questions about conspiracist beliefs and asking respondents to answer one of: 1: definitely not true; 2: probably not true; 3: not sure/cannot decide; 4: probably true; 5: definitely true. The problem is: what if the questions don’t measure what the authors intended? Some are very specific, conflating actor, action and even motive. This article aims to show some of the flaws in the questions and to show what the scale really demonstrates...
Detailed Rebuttals
These are in the same order as they appear in the paper.
2. The government has employed people in secret to assassinate others
A valid question, but if someone believes the government is run by other small groups (see later questions), the government would not need to employ anyone for this.
48. Government agencies have been secretly involved in the assassination of their own citizens
No problem here. The government would need to be involved, if only to cover it up.
61. The deaths of certain high-profile public figures have been the result of covert, government-sanctioned operations
No problem here.
20. Certain world leading political figures who died untimely deaths were in fact “taken out” by government operatives
This has the same problem as question 2. They may not be government operatives.
55. Some of the people thought to be responsible for acts of terrorism were actually set up by those responsible
No problem here.
19. For strategic reasons, the government permits certain terrorist activities to occur which could otherwise be prevented
No problem here.
69. Some acts of terrorism, which have resulted in the deaths of many civilians, have been secretly directed by government operatives
...or at least with the consent of the government.
57. High-level politicians have had certain people killed in order to prevent embarrassing events from becoming publicly known
It can be very difficult to determine the motive.
38. Government agencies secretly keep certain outspoken celebrities and citizens under constant surveillance
They could also be kept under surveillance by other organisations.
34. The government keeps many important secrets from the public
No problem here.
9. Some individuals thought to be responsible for the assassination of public figures were set up by the group responsible
No problem here.
15. The government lies about their knowledge of terrorist activities
No problem here.
22. There are ongoing, hidden efforts to marginalize, control, or destroy certain groups of people through the use of political policies
No problem here.
1. Certain celebrities and/or public figures actually faked their own deaths in order to escape the spotlight
This makes an assumption about the motive.
27. Viruses and/or diseases have been deliberately disseminated to infect certain populations
No problem here.
4. The government has staged important societal events in order to manipulate voters
No problem here.
12. The government fakes evidence relating to significant world events to deceive citizens
No problem here.
30. Evidence of alien contact is being concealed from the public
No problem here.
53. Evidence of alien presence on earth is being covered up
No problem here.
25. Secret organizations communicate with extra terrestrials, but keep this fact from the public
Secret organisations or government agencies.
29. Some UFO sightings and rumors are planned or staged in order to distract the public from real alien contact
Another assumption of motive. It could be to distract the public from some something else.
10. Some existing technologies are the result of reverse engineering alien technology
No problem here.
37. Space missions are deliberately sabotaged so that the public does not learn of existing alien activity in the solar system
...or possibly something else inconvenient about the solar system.
58. Movies and TV shows featuring aliens are a way of preparing the population for the news that aliens are real and have visited earth
No problem here.
59. The power held by heads of state is second to that of small unknown groups who really control world politics
There’s the question of the definition of small, but generally, no problem here.
11. A small, secret group of people is actually in control of the world economy
No problem here.
70. Certain significant world events have been the result of the activity of a small group who secretly manipulate world politics
No problem here.
42. A small, secret group of people is responsible for making all major world decisions, such as going to war
No problem here.
68. Members of a secret group have infiltrated governments and powerful organizations in order to 1 day bring their group to the point of global control
This question assumes that governments have been infiltrated. Some may believe that governments were created by these groups.
64. Many well-known celebrities, politicians, and wealthy people are members of a secret society which has control over our lives
No problem here.
14. Large, influential industries are in fact tightly controlled by a small, secret group of people
No problem here.
44. Small groups of people are in possession of secret knowledge which would change our understanding of the world, and are deliberately keeping it hidden
No problem here.
40. Secret organizations have access to large amounts of personal data on every citizen and sell it to the government
Maybe they don’t sell it to the government and just use it for their own ends?
50. The rapid spread of certain viruses and/or diseases is the result of the deliberate, concealed efforts of some organization
...or the government.
36. Experiments involving new drugs are carried out on the general public without their knowledge or consent
No problem here.
18. Cures for certain deadly and common diseases exist, but are being deliberately withheld
No problem here.
7. Certain natural disasters have in fact been the result of secret testing of powerful and advanced technology with unknown capabilities
No problem here.
41. The pharmaceutical industry administers harmful treatments without people’s consent in order to keep people sick and boost drug sales
No problem here.
23. Technology with mind-control capacities exists and is currently being used on people without their knowledge
It does leave out the possibility of non-technological mind-control techniques, but generally, no problem here.
24. A lot of information about diseases and treatments is withheld from the public
No problem here.
8. The government withholds a lot of information about diseases and their treatments from the public
No problem here.
33. Certain chemicals are put in the water supply in order to control the people
No problem here.
46. Experiments involving advanced technologies are carried out on the general public without their knowledge or consent
No problem here.
3. Groups of scientists deliberately attempt to create panic about future risks because it is in their interests to do so
It may be the government (or on behalf of the government), not scientists, attempting to create panic.
62. Advanced technology is secretly used to placate the people and suppress dissent
No problem here.
39. The government deliberately permits certain terrorist activities to occur to keep the public in a state of fear
No problem here.
54. Progress toward a cure for cancer, AIDS, and other diseases is deliberately being hindered
No problem here.
13. Technology with mind-control capacities is tested on people without their knowledge or consent
No problem here.
51. Some viruses and/or diseases which many people are infected with were created in laboratories as bio-weapons
No problem here.
60. Family planning policies are part of a plot to control and limit certain populations
No problem here.
66. Drugs are deliberately supplied to certain communities in order to marginalize or destroy them
No problem here.
28. New and advanced technology which would harm current industry is being suppressed
No problem here.
52. New and better technology is suppressed by those whose current business would be disrupted by it
No problem here.
65. Groups of scientists ensure that only evidence which supports a pre-determined conclusion is made known to the public
No problem here.
72. Technology is being concealed which is far in advance of what is known to the general public
No problem here.
21. Government funded scientists manipulate evidence in order to support existing government policy
No problem here.
74. The media ensures that only certain information is made known to the public
No problem here.
71. Certain groups of scientists fabricate data in support of a particular scientific theory out of self-interest
No problem here.
17. The government has a large amount of confidential data on every citizen without their knowledge or permission
No problem here.
Conclusion
As you can see, the conflation of the actor, action and motive will result in a lower score for many conspiracist beliefs. For example, someone who thinks that celebrity deaths are faked would rate that as 5, but if they’re unsure whether it’s to escape the spotlight, they’d have to answer 3 or 4.
The problem is not just with the test. The typical portrayal of a conspiracy theory (from the likes of Alex Jones or David Icke) is this complete package, all tied up in a neat little bow. There are many people who may take parts of their theory, but discount others.
Therefore, what this test measures is not conspiracist beliefs, rather someone’s propensity to unquestioningly embrace a pre-packaged view of the world. The top end of the scale would be weighted towards these people. If the complete theory happens to be easily disproven, it could almost be deemed a gullibility index. It’s not entirely surprising that people who adopt such complete views without consideration would score lower in Critical Thinking Ability.
Unfortunately, this would invalidate any study that aims to assess those with conspiracist beliefs.